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Using Formal and Computational Modelling to Develop an Initial Within-Person System Dynamics Model of Relapse in Smoking Cessation: A Participatory, Iterative, Multi-Method Approach

استفاده از مدل‌سازی صوری و محاسباتی برای توسعه مدل پویایی سیستم درون‌فردی اولیه بازگشت به مصرف در ترک سیگار: رویکرد مشارکتی، تکرارشونده و چند روشی

Olga Perski, James M. Allen, Meelim Kim, Misha Pavel, Nelli Hankonen, Eric Hekler

Peer Community Journal 2026 Vol. 6
https://doi.org/10.24072/pcjournal.802

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چکیده

Popular relapse prevention theories are represented using natural language descriptions and lack temporal information about how phenomena of interest (i.e., ‘relapse’, ‘prolapse’, ‘abstinence’) are dynamically caused over time and within individuals. We drew on the Theory Construction Methodology to develop a formal and computational model of relapse in smoking cessation. We used a participatory, iterative, multi-method approach involving i) an informal theory and computational model review, ii) stakeholder interviews with researchers, people with lived experience, stop smoking practitioners, and policymakers ( N = 15) and iii) in silico simulations. We propose an initial within-person system dynamics model of relapse (‘COMPLAPSE’) in which biopsychosocial factors (e.g., stressors, cigarette cues, cravings, self-efficacy) are represented as time-varying inputs and state variables. These factors jointly determine the momentary preference for each behavioural option (i.e., smoke a cigarette, use a regulatory strategy, do nothing), with the probability of selecting each option (i.e., the output) generated by a softmax function. The simulations highlight the model’s ability to generate representational patterns of the phenomena of interest (i.e., relapse, prolapse and abstinence), thus providing an early sense-check of its explanatory adequacy. In addition, local sensitivity analyses demonstrate that systematic variation of selected model parameters leads to expected qualitative shifts from, for example, prolapse to relapse. We discuss the implications of our work for relapse prevention theories and real-world applications, including the development and optimisation of technology-mediated just-in-time adaptive interventions for relapse prevention in smoking cessation.

چکیده به فارسی

نظریه‌های رایج پیشگیری از بازگشت به مصرف با استفاده از توصیفات زبان طبیعی ارائه می‌شوند و فاقد اطلاعات زمانی درباره چگونگی ایجاد پویای پدیده‌های مورد علاقه (یعنی «بازگشت به مصرف»، «پیشرفت»، «پرهیز») در طول زمان و درون افراد هستند. ما با بهره‌گیری از روش‌شناسی ساخت نظریه، یک مدل صوری و محاسباتی از بازگشت به مصرف در ترک سیگار توسعه دادیم. ما از رویکردی مشارکتی، تکرارشونده و چند روشی استفاده کردیم که شامل: i) مرور غیررسمی نظریه و مدل محاسباتی، ii) مصاحبه با ذینفعان شامل پژوهشگران، افراد با تجربه زیسته، درمانگران ترک سیگار و سیاست‌گذاران (N = 15) و iii) شبیه‌سازی‌های رایانه‌ای بود. ما یک مدل اولیه پویایی سیستم درون‌فردی بازگشت به مصرف («COMPLAPSE») را پیشنهاد می‌کنیم که در آن عوامل زیستی‌روانی‌اجتماعی (مانند عوامل استرس‌زا، نشانه‌های سیگار، اشتیاق به مصرف، خودکارآمدی) به عنوان ورودی‌ها و متغیرهای حالت متغیر در زمان نمایش داده می‌شوند. این عوامل به طور مشترک ترجیح لحظه‌ای برای هر گزینه رفتاری (یعنی کشیدن سیگار، استفاده از راهبرد تنظیمی، هیچ اقدامی نکردن) را تعیین می‌کنند و احتمال انتخاب هر گزینه (یعنی خروجی) توسط یک تابع softmax تولید می‌شود. شبیه‌سازی‌ها توانایی مدل را در تولید الگوهای بازنمایی پدیده‌های مورد علاقه (یعنی بازگشت به مصرف، پیشرفت و پرهیز) برجسته می‌کند و بدین ترتیب ارزیابی اولیه‌ای از کفایت تبیینی آن ارائه می‌دهد. علاوه بر این، تحلیل‌های حساسیت محلی نشان می‌دهد که تغییر نظام‌مند برخی پارامترهای مدل منجر به تغییرات کیفی مورد انتظار، برای مثال از پیشرفت به بازگشت به مصرف، می‌شود. پیامدهای این پژوهش برای نظریه‌های پیشگیری از بازگشت به مصرف و کاربردهای عملی، از جمله توسعه و بهینه‌سازی مداخلات تطبیقی مبتنی بر فناوری در لحظه برای پیشگیری از بازگشت به مصرف در ترک سیگار، مورد بحث قرار گرفته است.

ترجمه‌ی خودکار برای آشنایی سریع؛ برای نقل و ارجاع، متن اصلی ملاک است.

موضوع‌ها و کلیدواژه‌ها

خودکارآمدیدرمانشناختBiopsychosocial modelComputational modelDynamics (music)PreferencePsychological interventionSystem dynamicsVariation (astronomy)

ارجاع

Perski, O., Allen, J. M., Kim, M., Pavel, M., Hankonen, N., & Hekler, E. (2026). Using Formal and Computational Modelling to Develop an Initial Within-Person System Dynamics Model of Relapse in Smoking Cessation: A Participatory, Iterative, Multi-Method Approach. Peer Community Journal, 6. https://doi.org/10.24072/pcjournal.802

(Perski et al., 2026)

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گفت‌وگو

قوانین پرسش و گفتگو
  1. با احترام و بدون توهین، تحقیر، برچسب‌زنی یا حمله‌ی شخصی با دیگران گفتگو کنید.
  2. از نوشتن هرگونه اطلاعات هویتی یا قابل‌شناسایی مراجعان، بیماران یا اشخاص ثالث، از جمله نام، شماره‌ی تماس، تصویر، نشانی، محل کار یا جزئیات منحصربه‌فرد پرونده خودداری کنید.
  3. اگر درباره‌ی یک تجربه‌ی بالینی سؤال می‌کنید، اطلاعات را تا حد ممکن بی‌نام و کلی بیان کنید تا امکان شناسایی فرد وجود نداشته باشد.
  4. این بخش برای یادگیری و گفت‌وگوی علمی است و جایگزین ارزیابی، تشخیص، مشاوره یا روان‌درمانی شخصی نیست.
  5. در شرایط بحران یا خطر آسیب به خود یا دیگران، به این بخش اتکا نکنید و برای دریافت کمک فوری با اورژانس اجتماعی ۱۲۳ یا صدای مشاور بهزیستی ۱۴۸۰ تماس بگیرید.
  6. انتشار تبلیغات، معرفی خدمات شخصی، شماره‌ی تلفن، شناسه‌ی شبکه‌های اجتماعی، پیوند تبلیغاتی یا درخواست جذب مراجع در این بخش مجاز نیست.
  7. در بیان ادعاهای علمی، به‌ویژه درباره‌ی اثربخشی درمان‌ها، تشخیص یا یافته‌های پژوهشی، تا حد امکان نام منبع معتبر، مقاله یا راهنمای علمی را ذکر کنید.
  8. از ارائه‌ی تشخیص قطعی، تجویز درمان یا دارو و توصیه‌های بالینی شخصی به سایر کاربران خودداری کنید.
  9. پاسخ‌هایی که کارشناسان فکر بنیان می‌دهند با برچسب «پاسخ فکر بنیان» یا «کارشناس فکر بنیان» نمایش داده می‌شوند و سایر نوشته‌ها بیانگر نظر کاربران هستند.
  10. گزارش نوشته‌ی نامناسب: اگر نوشته‌ای حاوی نقض محرمانگی، محتوای آسیب‌زا، توهین، تبلیغ یا تخلف از این قوانین است، گزینه‌ی «گزارش» را انتخاب کنید تا تیم سایت بررسی کند.

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Awareness of Youth-Friendly Sexual and Reproductive Health Services among Undergraduate Students at Saint Augustine University of Tanzania, Mwanza, Tanzania: A Cross-Sectional Study

Frank Deus Samson; Paskas Wagana; Johnson Mavole International journal of social sciences and humanities review, 2026

چکیده

Background: Awareness of youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health services (YFSRHS) is an important starting point for enabling young people to identify and seek appropriate sexual and reproductive health information and care. However, awareness of these services may vary across settings, including higher education institutions. Objective: To determine the level of awareness of YFSRHS among undergraduate students at Saint Augustine University of Tanzania (SAUT), Malimbe Campus. Methods: A quantitative descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among undergraduate students at SAUT Malimbe Campus. Data were collected using a structured, self-administered questionnaire. Of 109 questionnaires distributed, 108 completed questionnaires were included in the analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize students’ awareness and reported sources of information. Results: Of the 108 respondents, 96 (88.9%) reported having heard of YFSRHS, while 12 (11.1%) had not. Social media was the most frequently reported source of information (44.0%), followed by friends or peers (41.0%) and health facilities (36.0%). University programmes and posters or advertisements were reported less frequently. Conclusion: Most respondents had heard of YFSRHS, with social media and peer networks serving as prominent information channels. Strengthening accurate information through these channels, alongside university-based communication, may help address the awareness gap among students who remain unreached.

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چکیده

Universities preparing graduates for technology-enabled financial services need to understand how digital learning conditions relate to students’ career readiness. This study examines the associations of university-based Digital Financial Learning Ecosystem Quality with perceived FinTech Career Readiness among Vietnamese business students. Drawing on Social Cognitive Theory and Social Cognitive Career Theory, ecosystem quality is modelled as a reflective–formative higher-order construct comprising Digital Academic Support, the Digital Learning Environment, and Digital Teaching Innovation. Cross-sectional survey data from 341 students recruited through nonprobability convenience sampling via networks centred on northern Vietnam were analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling and a disjoint two-stage procedure.All three ecosystem dimensions made significant formative contributions, with the digital learning environment showing the largest estimated weight. Higher ecosystem quality was positively associated with self-efficacy and learning motivation, and self-efficacy was positively associated with motivation. Motivation and career orientation were positively associated with perceived readiness, with motivation having the larger estimated direct coefficient. Career orientation showed no significant additional association with motivation after accounting for ecosystem quality and self-efficacy. Ecosystem quality was indirectly associated with readiness through motivation and through the sequential pathway involving self-efficacy and motivation. The model explained 41.5% of the variance in perceived readiness.The study contributes an integrated operationalisation of university-based digital financial learning quality and distinguishes learning-related associations from those of career orientation. The findings inform potential priorities for coordinating digital platforms, relevant financial content, academic support, practical learning, and competency-based career guidance. For universities and financial institutions, the study offers evidence to guide collaboration on graduate preparation and a foundation for evaluating how perceived readiness relates to demonstrated workplace competence.

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Religious education is often expected to promote tolerance, but respect for religious difference does not necessarily ensure accurate understanding of religious others. This study examines how religious education policies in Indonesia and England emphasize different forms of cognitive tolerance. Using qualitative document analysis and comparative policy analysis, the study analyzes selected legal, curricular, and pedagogical documents through four components: Knowledge of Religious Others, Recognition of Internal Diversity, Critical Reflection, and Understanding Commonalities and Differences. Indonesian policy gives greater relative emphasis to understanding commonalities and differences within religion-specific formation, social harmony, and responsible citizenship. English policy gives greater emphasis to critical reflection and knowledge of religious and non-religious worldviews through shared enquiry. Recognition of Internal Diversity appears in similar proportions in both datasets, but it serves different curricular functions. The findings show differently configured pathways toward cognitive tolerance, combining the same cognitive components with different relative emphases and curricular purposes.

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